Round 1 (2024)

HANDICAP

1U COLL -10.5

We've got a consensus between all four analysts so off we go for our first handicap bet of 2024. A classic bet in punting is the bounce back performance from a great team after a loss. This week we're taking the Pies back at home at the G where they rarely lose (14/17 in 2023 and 27/33 in the last 2 years, while SYD were 0-4 last season) and where the Swans tend to give up big scores. There was a near all time X-Score differential of 47 in the GWS/COLL game, so their loss was nowhere near as bad as it looked. It’s a big night for the Pies are also unveiling their 2023 flag.

We’re on them for a unit at the -10.5 which is available at most books.

TOTALS

MELB/WB o166.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 0.5

DISPOSALS

Errol Gulden (o26.5)

A bit like the Pies Errol had a slow start last week. We love a bounce back play in the second round though and the pies gave up huge numbers to opposition midfielders all through last season. Errol also had 37 against them in this game last year. The Pies won't put any attention into him this week, the man is a bin and we expect him to cover the line easily.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Zac Merrett (o26.5)

Get in this one quick. Finn McGuinnes is the sub there's no parish and merit is gonna go nuts. Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Steven May (o18.5)

WB ended the 2023 season conceding big numbers to DESKCK and with Bowie out we’re looking at Steven May this week. Books had too low last week with the 20+ at around $3.00. Salem looks to be spending more time in the midfield. Bowie took 5 kicks outs last week and so did May so if he can pick those up that would be huge.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Ollie Wines (o24.5)

Wines had a down season last year with Port preferring to use him on the wing. Clearly that's not his best position so they've opted to bring him back into the guts where he won his Brownlow medal. He should clear this number easily across the season if he stays in his preferred spot.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

GOALSCORERS

Toby Greene

Lets not over think things. Getting a nice price on Toby against what looks like a very bad backline on paper. GWS will be looking to build on last week and start the season strong, expecting a big win and a big day for the King

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

1.5U 3+ $2.2

0.5U 4+ $4.1

0.25U 5+ $8.75