Round 1 (2025)

RICH/CARL

Adam Cerra 25+/30+

Cerra was riddled with injuries last season and his numbers showed it. He looked great in limited TOG in the pre-season and comes up against what at the end of 2025 will be a historically easy matchup in the Tigers midfield

Bookmaker: TAB*

Units: 

1U 25+ $1.95

0.5U 30+ $4.50

Tom De Koning 20+

Post-bye TDK averaged 21.3 without Pitto and tonight he’ll act an as extra mid and should rack em up. We expect the Blues to dominate the forward half game. Nank will sit behind the ball a fair bit leading TDK to roam around the down the line kick as an extra.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.72*

Units: 1.3

*Making use of the ‘miss by one’ promo available to all here

Cooper Lord AGS

Bookmaker: Topsport $3.05

Units: 0.5

Carlton Q4 Line -12.5

We expect to see the Tigers put up a decent fight in the first half but it’s going to be a struggle for their younger players to stand up for the full 120 mins. 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.95

Units: 1

HAW/ESS

Zac Merrett AGS

Post-bye in 2024 Merrett crept fwd more and hit this at a rate of 60%. Word out of the Bombers is that this season we’ll see more of him and Martin forward of the ball to improve our delivery inside 50. 

Bookmaker: Topsport $2.65

Units: 0.6

Zac Merrett u28.5

For the above reasons and also because Hawthorn were an incredibly difficult matchup post-bye for mids last season and that doesn’t seem to have changes judging by the Swans game. Small risk of the Finn tag as well if Mitchell wants to use him to replace Worpel while quelling Merrett. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.80

Units: 1.1

GEE/FREO

Bailey Smith u24.5

We've seen underdone players struggle with fitness to start the season and Smith definitely ticks that box. Had a few niggles across the preseason and has not played a full game in over a year. Fail to see him clearing this number in 37° heat. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

WBD/NTH

Caleb Daniel 25+

Historically the NM ‘quarter-back’ role has been one of epic pig outs. The lil lego man has something to prove today after a few down seasons against his old club. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.60

Units: 1.4

Sam Darcy Goals 

No JUH here so will see a spike in targets. Has added bulk and he’s got 4 inches on any North defender. Kicked 7 against this mob last time out.

Bookmaker: Topsport

Units: 

1U 3+ $2.33

0.4U 4+ $4.30

0.1U 5+ $9.75

Paul Curtis Goals

Big fan of this guy who’s set for a big year. Adding some value to the NM plus play we’ve already taken.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

1U 2+ $3.40

0.4U 3+ $10

0.1U 4+ $40

SYD/BRI

Lachie Neale u27.5

Having dropped Angus Sheldrick and not brought in a recognised midfielder, the Swans are seemingly going to lean into James Jordon. JJ on the midfield generally turns into a shut down job and Neale is the obvious candidate. Neale torched them to pieces in the GF and the Swannies will want to avoid a repeat. Neale is another one on a limited prep coming into 30 degree heat.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes/Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

COL/PTA Conor Rozee 25+

Rozee will see increased responsibility without butters against a glacial Pies midfield. Looked very strong in the pre season and is set for a big year.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.60

Units: 1.4

Joe Berry AGS

Along with Kako, the best goal sneak in the 2024 draft crop. He’s very sneaky and if he gets a sniff, he’ll do the whole bag.

Bookmaker: Topsport $1.93

Units: 1

COLL/PA

Q1 Total o40.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.89

Units: 1

ADE/StK

We're already on the Crows -15.5 but adding...

Jake Soligo 25+

Soligo started last season strongly but faded as his fitness did. He looked fit AF in the pre season and is a pig when he’s 100% fit. His home numbers were stronger than away. This StK midfield looks slow and where it isn’t slow looks inexperienced.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.55

Units: 0.6

Jack Sinclair u28.5

Tough matchup here for a guy off a limited preparation. Potentially some weather around as well which won’t help his outside game.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

WC/GC

Bailey Humphrey 15+/20+

Wasn’t fit and had a few personal issues last season resulting in a fwd role and a fair bit of sub stuff. Looks far fitter and was racking them up against the Dons in the pre-season. Should see more opportunities without Flanders. 

Bookmaker: TAB*

Units: 

1.5U 15+ $1.58

0.5U 20+ $4.00

John Noble 20+

Bookmaker: TAB* $2.15

Units: 0.9