Round 19 (2024)

Total Points

ESS/ADE

Essendon -10.5

A bit of an overreaction here from the bookmakers after last weekends results. The Bombers aren’t set up well to perform against a big bodied well-structured defence like the Demons. Back home at Docklands on a dry deck they’re much better set up to get the better of a young travelling Crows side (youngest in the league in R18). The Crows are off a double six-day break having flown from Brisbane to Adelaide and now Melbourne and will be tired especially after such a tough night in the wet. The Crows have also struggled badly away over the last few years only winning four games and those were against some poor teams. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

StK/WC u164.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet/Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

BL/SYD o172.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 2

PA/RICH u169.5

Bookmaker: PlayUp $1.88

Units: 1

DISPOSALS

Lachie Whitfield o30.5

We are usually very reluctant to take high number overs like this but the way the Giants are using Whitfield combined with the Suns huge concession numbers away to this position (+11%) we have to take the overs. We’ve got it at around 33.

Bookmaker: Topsport $2.00

Units: 0.9

James Peatling 20+

Peddling gets a great chance in the middle here with Bedford and Cogs out of the side. When he was playing full-time midfield earlier in the season you showed the ability to get to this number so with the value price and the Suns uncontested numbers conceded away, this price is great value.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.20

Units: 0.8

Lachie Ash 20+

21 is a key number for Ash with great coverage numbers. When you are playing the Suns at home turns out you can basically do whatever you like off the half back line. We've got a beautiful clear day in Sydney so we should see high uncontested numbers. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.65

Units: 1.3

Sam Flanders u29.5

We took Ned last week might have to keep taking it if we get this number. Playing the Giants away is always tough for an opposition midfielder and he'll have trouble covering this number in his new position as he's never been consistent with it historically. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Dion Prestia u23.5

The Meatball had a day out last week which is rare these days. More common for the most subbed AFL player of all time is a bit of a struggle for a few quarters and then pulling a hammy. Port at night in slippery conditions is probably the hardest matchup for a midfielder in the league. An easy unders spot.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.80

Units: 1.15

Harry Sheezel u27.5

After struggling last week and only picking up easy touches in the last quarter when thrown back, Sheeze comes up against one of the toughest midfield match ups in the competition who are fired up after a few tame performances. With McKercher and Fischer back in the team together he won't be going back to defence and if he does the matchup is also very tough. Added to this is the Cincotta tag risk.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1