Round 21 (2024)

TOTAL POINTS

WB/MEL O167.5

Bookmaker: PointsBet

Units: 1

CAR/COLL

Q1 Total Scoring Shots o11.5

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

PA/SYD - Q1 SYD Team Total u20.5

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.88

Units: 1

DISPOSALS

Ed Richards 25+ (o23.5 w. Promo)

When playing his high mid minutes role for the Dogs, Richards has shown the ability to surpass this number with a neutral match up. The Dees however have a slow midfield at the moment and ads elite ground ball skills will see him get a fair bit of easy ball. The Swans know how dangerous he is and sent Jordan to him early with little effect. The Dees are unfamiliar with Docklands and I expect the Dogs to run rings around them. 

Bookmaker: TAB $2.10

Units: 0.8

Jayden Short u22.5

North Melbourne have been the toughest match up for defenders all season going 10% at the Dome and -10% post-bye. Short had 9 kick outs a few weeks ago and then ran into a very leaky Collingwood sidel ast week. We’ve got this one projected out at around 20.1 in the model so happy to take the unders. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.89

Units: 1

Blake Acres o22.5/25+

Acres loves the G and since the bye the Pies have been allowing a huge +21% uncontested possession with most of this coming from defenders and defensive wings. Acres is a wing but holds back a lot behind the defenders and slingshots back up the wing which is perfect for this match up. We are getting a bit of a better number due to his sub game last time out.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes/TAB

Units: 

0.7 Ladbrokes o22.5 $1.94

0.3 TAB 25+ (o23.5) $2.50

Sam Walsh - Most Disposals

Always a touch speculative these ones but Voss has strongly hinted Cincotta will pay close attention to Naicos. Also a great matchup bounce-back spot for Sam Walsh here with the Pies current game style not suited to putting much pressure on guys like Walsh.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet/Sportsbet $3.40

Units: 0.4

Tom Green u31.5

Green has had a great run of late against some easy matchups but runs into the Hawks who have been an incredibly tough match up on the inside for a few months now (HAW -16% MID INHIBIT after the bye). Manuka is one of the bigger grounds in the league which creates a lot of uncontested play which is not suitable for Green. Conor Nash should get the job of bodying Green at the contest.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Mason Redman o20.5

Redman has been pasted in the media all week for lack of effort. Jordan Ridley, I do primary kick in taker is also out which gives him and McGrath a bump. Fremantle are +10% to halfbacks when playing a way to season.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Jordan Clark u24.5

Since the by the Dockers have been a much more aggressive side and less likely to go backwards to Clark and Ryan. As a result Clark has only gone over this number once in 7 games. The Bombers apart from last week have been a very good pressure side and we expect them to wrap it up at home this week.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.91

Units: 1

Dayne Zorko u29.5

The Saints have been a much tougher match up behind the ball since the bye (-3%) and this is a hugely elevated number away. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1