Round 3 (2025)

PA/ESS

Total o175.5

Zero defence on either end here as we’ve seen play out in Round’s 1 and 2. Port lose Burton and Jones which further weakens them. The Bombers will probably mix things up a bit with possible moves on Shiel and Reid. None of those guys are actually good defenders but new set ups always provide some confusion. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.89

Units: 1

Isaac Kako Goals

Adding value to the over play here. Kako is quality and the Port defence on smalls has been terrible for a while now. We’ll back him in at home after having 5 scoring shots in games where the Bombers have been pumped. 

Bookmaker: TAB

Units: 

0.5U 2+ $2.40

0.35 3+ $5.50

0.15 4+ $15

Geelong +13.5 (vs. Brisbane)

What is it with this matchup and torrential rain. Round 6 last year was a slop. Round 0 cancelled this year due to a cyclone and now we’re due 9mm-45mm on Saturday. Rain is not the Lion’s friend. It stifles their corridor ball movement and takes away the high transition-high scoring game style. This was apparent last year in this matchup where the Cats just ground them down. The Lions are also coming off a brutal hot game against the Eagles and the Cats will be highly motivated to bounce back after their embarrassment at the hands of the Saints. Bailey Smith and Tom Stewart are still a good chance to play. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

GEE/BL u154.5

Lots of rain about all week and a very high chance of a slop here. 100 points scored in a similar matchup in the wet last season.

Bookmaker: TAB/Ladbrokes/Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

Richmond TEAM TOTAL u72.5

As a rule it’s not a great idea to back a team off a big win against a side coming off a big loss but there are some other key factors going for the Saints here. The young Tigers team are coming off a road trip and a lot of them won’t have played at Docklands before. In recent years the Saints are a track specialist pretty much only playing well at the Dome. The Tiges famously don’t travel the 2kms down the road well. The Tigers fwd line is not their strength and the Saints key is their defensive organisation. They scored 81 vs. the Blues with an XScore of 59.7 and only kicked on vs Port when the game over.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.95

Units: 1

Connor Rozee u30.5 Disposals

A career high line here for Rozee. We’ve back his overs in the first 2 weeks and the captain has started the year hot taking the responsibility for carrying the midfield without Butters. This has been pretty straightforward against 2 of the top 5 easiest mid matchups in the league. Tonight however he’ll see plenty of attention from both Durham and Caldwell in a game where we should see the Bombers ramp up the pressure on their pet deck. Only 8.5% clearance on this number in 2024.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 1.1

MEL/GC

Max Gawn 20+

Big response coming from the Maximum. Witts will helplessly plod about while Maxy gets in as an extra at every contest. GC away uncontested numbers were not pretty in 2024 and while we expect improvement, we’ll back against it until something changes. Some good value out there for MOST as well laying Flanders (conditioning) and Anderson (away record).

Bookmaker: Bet365/Ladbrokes $2.20

Units: 0.8

Clayton Oliver o27.5

We’re still getting value on Clarry from his meth-fueled disaster season in 2024. Dimma has never really tagged and Clarry in the open space of the G with no opponent is more often than not a 30+ lock. Was excellent last week and there’ll be big response from the Dees midfield after getting pantsed by the Roos boys.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.94

Units: 1

StK/RICH

Mitch Owens Goals

Has been playing deeper with the Saints injuries and comes into a soft matchup here. The Tigers talls are actually pretty good but the ball will be down there so much he’ll definitely get his chances. Traditionally a back up ruck, this job has been given to Keeler so there’s more game time in the forward arc. 

Bookmaker: TAB/Bet365

Units: 

1U 2+ $1.95 TAB

0.4U 3+ $4.00 Bet365

0.1U 4+ $11 Bet365

Darcy Wilson 20+

Wilson is set for a break up out after a solid 2024 and bulking up in the off season. After Richmond conceded a near record 353 uncontested possessions last week, we want to look for value on the outside against them. Wilson running up and down the wings ticks this box nicely. The Tigers also lack speed and back pace around them is the way to go.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.50

Units: 0.7

Zak Jones 20/25+*

Big value here on Jones. Had a badly sub-effected start to 2024 and since then a has covered the o18.5 mark 7/9 times. Add to the Tigers uncontested boost and this is one we have to play. 

Bookmaker: TAB* 

Units: 

1.4U $1.62

0.3U $3.75

*Using promo

BL/GEE

Max Holmes u23.5

It’s gonna be slippery and rugged out there tonight. Accumulating easy ball is never easy out there let alone in yet another QLD cyclone. We’re big fans of Max and will be on his overs at some point but not tonight.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

HAW/GWS

Tom Green u29.5 Disposals

Didn’t get anywhere near this mark in his 2 games against the Hawks last year. The Hawks 1-wood is their contest with big bodies around the ball. Nash will most likely run with him again on a big ground which is tough for the big quads to cover.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.83

Units: 1.2

Whitfield MOST Disposals (Group A)

York Park is the biggest ground in the competition and ground size has a strong correlation to accumulation off half-back. We’re also saying Tom Green with less contests in this one and attention from Nash.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $3.50

Units: 0.4

FREO/WC

Fremantle -25.5 (vs. West Coast)

All or nothing here from the Dockers at 0-2. They’ve got the schedule advantage with the Eagles coming off a Brisbane road trip and the Dockers staying in Perth. The Eagles gave it all against the Lions are a primed for a let down. The Dockers clearance work was a feature last season, finished as rank #3 where they’ve been beaten easily. Expecting a big game from Serong in particular.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

Luke Jackson 20+

Bailey Williams has been a soft target for opposition rucks for a while now and Jackson as solo ruck is tough for him. Expecting a big response from the Dockers midfield. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet/Topsport $1.75

Units: 1.2

Josh Treacy Goals

Doubling down on a strong Freo performance here by backing their main threat. Underrated in the southern states and is in for a big year. Has kicked at least 3 goals in 5 of this last 7 games and will get plenty of chances.

Bookmaker: Topsport 

Units: 

0.7U 3+ $2.42

0.3U 4+ $4.60

NM/ADE

Lachie Scholl o20.5

Scholl since Round 11 2024 has been on a heater averaging 23.3 and has far better home numbers than away. North over the past 5 years have not performed well in uncontested concession away.

Bookmaker: Sportbet $1.91

Units: 1