Round 4 (2025)

Fremantle -7.5 (vs. Western Bulldogs)

The Doggies have done well with all their injuries but over in the west will be a bridge too far. Freo will welcome back a number of key players in Young, O'Meara and possibly Darcy. They've also been outperming the Dogs on a number of 'premiership profile' KPIs even in their losses. We've got this one around the -14.5 mark.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Unit: 1

CARL/COLL

Jesse Motlop Goals

Motlop has had his fair share of chances this season kicking 2.6. The Pies have gone tall tonight even with Harry McKay playing. They’ll rely on guys like Howe to play small and Motlop should have decent access to ground balls. He struggled to find form last year after a long injury layoff but hit 2+ 47% in when playing a full season in 2023 so hopefully he can find that form again.

Bookmaker: Bet365 

Units:

0.6U 2+ $3.40

0.3U 3+ $10

0.1U 4+ $35

Sam Walsh o26.5

Walsh has built slowly after an injury affected pre-season but it’s time to back his overs. The Pies are still a slow midfield who can get exploited by transition runners like Walsh and he’s covered this mark easily in every game against the Pies since 2022.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.80

GEE/MEL

Tom Stewart u23.5

Stewie is a bit banged up and since the arrival of Humphreys has had more competition for the handball receive off half back. The Dees if they know what’s good for them will at least attempt to play as much keepings off as possible against the Cats as clubs have figured out that’s the best way of restricting them. If this one gets out of hand we might also see some reduced TOG. Always a potential tag target. Has only covered 8/25 on this mark over the pst 2 seasons.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Melbourne u71.5 Team Totals (Away Total Points O/U)

The Dees have struggled to score this season and for a while now tbh. The Cats in a must win at the Cattery isn’t going to be any easier. Especially their 1-wood in clearance isn’t working for them.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Gold Coast/Adelaide

Lachie Weller AGS

Expecting a shoot-out. Weller has been playing HHF/Wing and will have his chances, especially in the second half as the game gets strung out,

Bookmaker: Bet365/Pointsbet $2.15

Units: 0.8

Brisbane/Richmond

Charlie Cameron Goals

Went back to his old role as the deepest fwd in the pre-season which has been shared with Lohmann. Lohmann won’t play and we’re expecting CC to get us all nostalgic with a bag in a probable blowout. 

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units:

1U 2+ $1.67

0.6U 3+ $3.20

0.25U 4+ $7.50

0.1U 5+ $20

0.05U 6+ $70

Darcy Wilmot 20+

Pillmot is up for a big season and had an impressive first few weeks until last week when the conditions didn’t suit him. It’s a free for all down back when you’re playing the Tigers and he should fill-up.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.62

Units: 1.4

North Melbourne/Sydney 

Matt Roberts 25+

The Swans are going to this guy at every chance at the moment. Missed this mark against the Lions but that’s a tough matchup. North were a tough matchup to the designated kicker last season but seem to have brought back their press making it easier for guys like Roberts.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.60

Units: 0.6U

Joel Amartey Goals

He has had 3 top tier backlines in a row to start the season, now gets a more favorable matchup. North have been struggling with the key fwds, Clarko has Comben playing as the peeling off interceptor which can be a double-edged sword because he's the best 1on1 defender they have. Logue isn't bad, but he hasn't played much footy in the last 18 months. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units: 

1.1U 2+ $1.73

0.6U 3+ $3.30

0.2U 4+ $7.25

0.1U 5+ $16

BL -24.5 (Second Half Line)

The Lions could be a little slow out of the blocks here but we expect their experience to overrun the young Tiges in the second half.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.94

Units: 1

GWS/WC

Tom Green o31.5

West Coast aren’t tagging and teams often leave Green anyway as his disposal is not damaging. Good home numbers.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

PA/StK

Connor Rozee u26.5

Rossy ain’t gonna let Rozee run free today. Expect Windhager to go to him and the Saints to be very competitive.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.80

Units: 1.1

FREO/WB

Lachie Bramble 20+ (o18.5)

Freo are going with a very direct game style at the moment which result in a lot of touches for opposition halfbacks over the course of the season. However we expect some attention to go to Bailey Dale so Bramble should be the sweeper. 

Bookmaker: TAB $2.50

Units: 0.6

Patrick Voss Goals

Adding value to the earlier FREO handicap play. There are a few options up forward for the Dockers but Voss has had his chances and this price represents value.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet 

Units: 

0.5 2+ $3.40

0.25 3+ $9.75

0.05 4+ $31