Round 6 (2025)

Thursday Night Footy

Brisbane/Collingwood

Q1 COLL +2.5

The Lions are off a 5-day break in 30 degree heat and have not won a first quarter all season. Over the past few years, the Pies have to be the quickest out the gates, and dig in from there. 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Jamie Elliot 2+ Goals

Going matchup hunting here. We’re looking to see who gets Zorko and we’re leaning towards Elliot. The loss of Starcevic has meant that Dayne has been forced to do a bit more actually defending which is not his strength. The addition of De Goey adds more pressure to their small defenders and we’re hoping Jamie gets off the chain. There’s often a freebie going over the back in a milestone and it’s his 200th so Joe that goose Jamie.

Bookmaker: Ladbokes/Bet365 $2.20

Units: 0.75

NM +17.5 (vs. CARL)

Like a lot of young teams, the Roos perform well at their home ground and stink away. The Blues on the other hand only have a win percentage over the last three seasons of 41% at Docklands. They’re fourth last in point scored and don't have the firepower to blow anyone away at the moment with a full line of Zac Williams, Fogarty, Lewis Young, Motlop, Hollands, Curnow, Durdin and Cottrell. The Roos need to respond after a flogging and the Blues have had a soft week after beating the terrible Eagles. The Blues should still win this one just, but the Roos will keep it close. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Friday Footy Continued...

Goal scorers have been good to us this year but I think both of these games might be low scoring so a leave on that front today.

North Melbourne/Carlton

Patrick Cripps u28.5 

Crippa has been carrying an injury for 3 weeks now which we haven’t heard much about but he fell on his hip in a contest against the Dogs and hasn't been the same since. North are strong in the midfield, especially at Docklands and there won't be as much easy as people suspect. With his performance last week and the blues general lack of potency up forward he might spend some more time down there as well. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.83

Units: 1.05

NM/CARL H1 u89.5

Expecting this to be a scrap early. As we’ve covered, we expect the Blues to struggle offensively which might necessitate some more defensive tactics like a +1.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

West Coast/Essendon

Dylan Shiel 25+

The failed halfback experiment is over and Shiel is back to the role where he's best suited. Has covered this in the last few weeks even against the Power which is more difficult than the Eagles who give up +7% to midfielders. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

ESS/WC H1 u87.5

2 offensively challenged teams. McGovern back is huge for the Eagles and the Bombers showed last week, they can defend. Both are young tend to fade later in games where most of the scoring happens.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Tomorrow...

Fremantle -18.5 (vs. MEL)

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

Melbourne/Fremantle

Clayton Oliver o27.5

Clarry has been in the gun this week and he should respond. Has failed to clear this twice this season when he’s been tagged by Setterfield and Bedford. Has been tagged by Freo in the past but that’s unlikely with the way the midfield rotation looks at the moment.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.94

Units: 0.95

Jordan Clark 25+

The Dees are winning their fair share of Inside 50s and not retaining it. As a result, opposition defenders are having a field day. The days of FREO chippy-chippy are over but that shouldn’t get in the way of Clark racking em up.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Christian Salem 20+ 

Doesn’t make heaps of sense this price. May out give him more kick-outs and he’s covered this mark 4/5 games so far. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.86

Units: 1.05

Next Best: TAB (19+ w. promo $1.65)

Shai Bolton Goals

Knows this ground, building into form, has had plenty of opportunities lately and the Dees don’t have matchup for him. Imagine if he kicks straight for once!

Bookmaker: Pointsbet 

Units: 

1U 2+ $1.95

0.4U 3+ $4.00

0.1U 4+ $11

Melbourne Team Total u72.5

Worst fwd line I’ve seen since….. Richmond every week.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90 

Units: 1

Richmond/Gold Coast

Daniel Rioli o21.5

Rioli hasn’t quite hit his straps so far this season. His old team the Tigers have been very leaky to running defenders this season at +12%. Perfect bounce back spot on a quick deck.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Jed Walter Goals

There's a lot of potential in Walter and we're getting a great price against a poor team. Had a lot of sub affected games last season and we're getting an elevated price due to less time on ground. A lot of focus will go to Ben King and he should receive the poor defender. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet 

Units: 

1U 2+ $2.30 

0.4U 3+ $5.50

0.1U 4+ $14

Toby Greene Goals

Will see a big boost in inside 50 targets and the Crows don't have a great matchup. Has an impressive record against the Crows kicking at least 3 in his last 3 games.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes 

Units: 

1.2U 2+ $1.70

0.4U 3+ $3.15

0.1U 4+ $7

Richmond Team Total u71.5

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

AFL Sunday

Western Bulldogs/St Kilda

Tom Liberatore u27.5

Bevo has made a few comments about Libba needing a rest at some point. His numbers with Bont are far worse than without him and there's always the threat of the Windy tag.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Rhylee West Goals

Great heat maps. Plenty of opportunities. The Saints have been cooked a few times by smalls like Toby Green kicking 5 on them last week. He’ll sit at the feet of Darcy who should get most of the attention.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet 

Units: 

0.7U 2+ $2.80

0.3U 3+ $8.00

0.05 4+ $25 (Bet365)

Port Adelaide/Sydney

Miles Bergman u19.5

All of a sudden it’s a busy back half for the Power. Rozee is back there now as the primary ball user. The Swans have gone at -5% on the season against half backs and held Jaicos to 15 last week. Bergman came off injured last week and is reportedly still dealing with some swelling in is knee. He will take more of a defensive role this week taking a medium forward like Hayward. Was 3/26 on this mark in 2024.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.79

Units: 1.1

AFL Monday

Geelong/Hawthorn

Tyson Stengle Goals

Geelong are an elite ground ball team IN50 this season and the Hawks are one of the worst. Stengle has cleared the 2+ 60% of his games in the last 2 seasons. Gets the Jiath or Impey matchup which will be favourable. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units: 

0.8U $2.60

0.3U $6.25

0.1U $17

Luke Breust Goals

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.4U 2+ $3.20

0.15U 3+ $9