Round 7 (2025)

Melbourne/Richmond

MEL/RICH u175.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Jack Viney 20+/25+

After there being some doubt about his role, Viney came good last week whilst running with Serong. Have to take this price with Viney a full-time mid against a team going +10% to opposition midfields. Averages 25 against the Tigers across the last few seasons.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units: 

1U 20+ $1.74

0.3U 25+ $3.90

Ed Langdon 20+

The Dees will live in the midfield tonight and be sharing it around while the Tigers sit deep and try and slingshot. Langdon will be a beneficiary but also has a fantastic record at the MCG.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.75

Units: 1.1

Fremantle/Adelaide

Q1 Total o43.5

2 of the top 5 teams fastest out of the blocks going at it.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Jeremy Sharp 20+*

Value play here. Sharp averages 20.0 at home and 17.7 since the beginning of 2023. With the promo, he only needs 19 in a neutral uncontested matchup with the Crows.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.25

Units: 0.75

Riley Thilthorpe Goals

Third in marks IN50 and will only get targeted more without Darcy Fogarty who ranks 5th on that stat. Curtin should go forward but Thilthy will be demanding the footy 4.15 scoring shots per game this year without accounting for non-scoring misses. Last week Petty kicked 4. Darcy 5 a few weeks before. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet

Units:

0.6U 3+ $2.70

0.3U 4+ $5.80

0.05 5+ $13.00

Essendon/Collingwood

COLL/ESS u159.5

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Zac Merrett u31.5

With the conditions and the options the Pies have in Long, Sidebottom and even Perryman to stop Merrett, the under is the only option here. Wet games generally have around 5% less uncontested possessions than dry games and Merrett is the #1 uncontested possession players in the league.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1 

Nic Martin u25.5

Had 65% of his touches last week in the fwd half aganist his bunnies last week in the Eagles. Another very high uncontested percentage player in slippery conditions. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87

Units: 1

Josh Daicos u25.5

Strong start to the season but becomes the second option in distribution off half back with Houston returning and tertiary option with kick-ins. Conditions will also make it tough.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.92

Units: 1

Port Adelaide/North Melbourne

Port Adelaide -38.5 (vs. NM)

North are trying a reset by dropping a few defenders. They’re not the key issue though and they’ll still cop a millions inside 50s against. North haven’t got within 8 goals of Port since 2020 and Port sure do love a black run.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Mitch Georgiades Goals

Deepest forward against absolutely no one and has looked very threatening lately and could’ve had 5 a few weeks in a row.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Units:

1.2U 3+ $1.98

0.4U 4+ $3.45

0.15U 5+ $7.00

0.05U 6+ $16.00

Zak Butters 30+

Has had a lot of tough matchups and tags lately and this one shouldn’t be difficult, especially in the second half.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.15

Units: 0.8

Dylan Stephens u18.5 

A must play simply as a sub risk let alone the way Port restrict uncontested possession at home. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.84

Units: 1.05

Greater Western Sydney/Western Bulldogs

WB +11.5

The Giants were found out last week with the way the Crows defended the ground by cutting off the corridor and the 45. The Dogs rank #1 in defending D50 to F50 transition and will be foolish not try to and replicate it. 

Not only that but it looks like it could be slippery and the Dogs have the advantage there as the better contest team (GWS 15th in both CP and PostCL-CP) and will feel the lack of KPFs less.

They also have won 6 of the last 7 and only lost that one game by 5 points. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.91

Units: 1

Rhylee Sanders u20.5

Took the piss last week in a high half-forward role in a blow out at home vs the Saints. Things will be different away here in a hot contested game. Played further forward with Bont returning.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.86

Units: 1

Rhylee West 2+ Goals

Don’t usually play goal scorers along with the under but love what West is doing at the moment and the game should suit him.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $3.75

Units: 0.4U

GWS/WB u167.5

This matchup has always been a disgusting clash of style which ends in a scrap. The Dogs front half pressure should limit the GWS ball movement and the Giants elite defence should limit the Dogs scoring even though they should win the IN50s.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

St Kilda/Brisbane

Kai Lohmann 2+ Goals

Rough start to the year after being subbed twice. Great coverage on 2+ in his last 15 games and with a high total there value here. 

Bookmaker: TAB $2.40

Units: 0.65

Luke Parker Last Goal Scorer

Bit of sillyness really. Clarko would always put the milestone guy deep in the goal square late in the game back in the Hawks days. Parker's 300th.

Bookmaker: TAB $31

Units: 0.04

GWS/WB Q1 Total u40.5

Bookmaker: TAB $1.90

Units: 1

Gold Coast/Sydney

Hayden McLean Goals

The Swans have started to rely heavily on McLean for IN50 targets since Amartey went down. He had 6 shots last week and has covered the 2+ 3/4 games this season. Great day for fast footy out there.

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units: 

0.8U 2+ $2.25

0.3U 3+ $5.50

Carlton/Geelong

Tom De Koning 20+ 

Number 1 for grabbing it out of the ruck, TDK has had his excuses over the last few weeks. Xerri won’t let you do that and the Eagles game had the fewest stoppages this season. The way the Cats work is to have Blicavs coming in from the wing for a lot of stoppages while Stanley sits behind the ball. 

Bookmaker: TAB $2.05

Units: 0.85

Adam Saad 20+ 

The Cats are +7% to half backs this season and Saad is the priority distributor. 4/6 on this mark this season. His numbers should go up as the Blues install this more handball happy strategy.

Bookmaker: TAB $1.80

Units: 1.1

Hawthorn/West Coast

Massimo D’Ambrosio 20+

Great bounce back spot for Mass. The Eagles are a very direct team this season which creates opportunities behind the ball. As a defensive wing, Mass can take advantage of the Eagles +11% uncontested concession and +6% across half back. Familiar with the Dome after his time with the Bombers. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $2.20

Units: 0.8

Mabior Chol Goals

Has been peppering the goals this season with 15 shots. The Eagles have also really struggled with key talls (Wright 6.0, Hogan 9.0, Amiss 4.1/Treacy3.0, Curnow 2.4).   

Bookmaker: TAB

Units: 

1U 2+ $1.70

0.4U 3+ $3.20

0.1U 4+ $7.00 

Ryan Maric u20.5

Was getting a high percentage of his touches from kick-outs but now McGovern is back. The Hawks are -10% to half backs.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Harley Reid u17.5

Has some pretty horrible away numbers and the Hawks away is the toughest gig going around.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.86

Units: 1

Jai Newcombe o27.5

Should absolutely run riot today. Great numbers without Day and the Eagles don’t tag. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1