Round 8 (2025)

Essendon/Western Bulldogs

Poiter has kicked more goals against North than any other team. More importantly he loves playing at Marvel having kicked 73 goals from 33 games, Compared to 44 goals from 28 games at the MCG. North are struggling down back with Georgiades + Lord dominating without putting it on the scoreboard.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

Units:

1U 3+ $2.50

0.35U 4+ $5

0.15U 5+ $11.50

Jordan Ridley 20+*

Great coverage on the 19 number across his career. North were a significant negative to half back last season but this is neutral this season. 

Bookmaker: TAB $1.85

Units: 1

Ben Hobbs 20+*

Has been seeing more mid time week by week and minutes inside will go up again with Shiel out. Tsatas is the direct replacement but a low TOG player.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.40

Units: 0.65

St Kilda/Fremantle

Andrew Brayshaw u30.5

Career high line here for Andy. Opposition mids against the Saints since Round 1 have only covered 34% of the time. Has been on fire and feel like Ross could crack the shits tonight and send some attention to him whether it be Windhager or Steele.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Luke Ryan u21.5

Only covering this due to big kick out numbers last week. Is playing 1on1 defence this season instead of the chip-chip role of last year. FREO rank #1 as the most direct team in the league. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Jack Macrae o25.5

The heat will have gone on the Saints experienced players during the week and we can expect a response. Macrae’s record at the Dome speaks for itself and he won’t receive tag attention. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

StK Q1 Win

The Saints will be pumped up for this one and come out hard. Rossy will have some sneaky coaching moves up his sleeve early which Longmuir will have to adapt to on the run. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $2.10

Units: 0.9

Sydney +9.5 (vs. GWS)

The Giants look a little out of ideas at the moment, while the Swans have maintained some good numbers is key premiership metrics. The Giants should struggle to move the ball again at the smaller SCG, especially without Josh Kelly. The Swans also have the weapons to shut down Callaghan, Green and Whitfield.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet/TAB/Sportsbet $1.90

Units: 1

Western Bulldogs -18.5 (vs. Port)

The Power are seriously battling at the moment. It hasn't shown yet in the win/loss column, but it will this week. They lost the last two games on X score and are the worst post-clearance contested ball team in the league. The Dogs have got a great system going and opposition teams really struggle to move the ball against them. It’s a tough travel gig for them flying to Melbourne and then on the bus to the Rat.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Logan Evans u18.5

Has suffered with the move of Rozee down back. The Dogs this season are -6% to half backs with 23% coverage of their lines. Thrives in wide-open uncontested games which won’t be the case against the Dogs.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 1

Kane Farrell u19.5

See above.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.95

Units: 0.95

Adelaide/Carlton

ADE/CAR o174.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Ben Keays Goals

Absolutely loves playing the blues and has kicked three goals in his last three games against them. A lot of smalls have a good record against the Blues due to their lack of quality small defenders, especially with Nic Newman out. Expect a few out-the-back Adelaide Oval Josh Jenkins specials from Ben. 

Bookmaker: Bet365

Units:

0.55 2+ $2.70

0.15 3+ $7.50

Harry McKay Goals

Looked imperious last week and confidence will be sky high. The Crows are looking short down back with Nick Murray out. They get Butts back but he’ll be busy on Curnow. Keane looks like the matchup and that’ll suit Harry.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet 

Units:

1.1U 2+ $1.78 

0.35U 3+ $3.50

0.1U 4+ $8.25

Collingwood/Geelong

Highest Scoring Half (First Half)

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.98

Units: 0.9

West Coast/Melbourne

Max Gawn 25+*

Poor Matt Flynn got eaten by big Meeky last weeky and it’s not going to be any different against Big Max.

Bookmaker: TAB $2.90

Units: 0.5

Adelaide/Carlton

Elijah Hollands u20.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Brodie Smith u18.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 1

Collingwood/Geelong

Mitch Duncan u21.5

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.84

Units: 1.05

Disposals madness!

Nick Daicos o30.5 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.94

Units: 0.95

Ned Long 20+*

Bookmaker: TAB $1.72

Units: 1.15

Adam Treloar AGS

Was initially looking at Matt Kennedy to go forward with Treloar's return but it looks like Treloar will be the guy who rests forward with Bevo sticking to the winning midfield mix.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $2.50

Units: 0.6

Isaac Heeney Goals

Heeney further forward in recent weeks and matches up well as a more mobile forward against the Giants tall forward line. We like the ones here so adding value to that play. 

Bookmaker: Pointsbet

Units: 

0.4U 2+ $3.10

0.15 3+ $9.00

0.05 4+ $23

Lachie Whitfield u28.5

Lachie has gone under his line in every single game against the Swans for five years. Strong possibility of a Jordan forward tag yet again. They’ve won the There’s also a strong chance today of a change in game style from the Giants after getting done recently with their rebound focused game. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Finn Callaghan u25.5

Tough spot for Callaghan against the toughest midfield in the game at home. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Hawthorn/Richmond

Conor Mcdonald Goals

Some wild inaccuracy giving us a good price here against a soft matchup.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet 

Units: 

0.5 2+ $2.80

0.15 3+ $7.75

Nick Vlastuin u20.5

Let down spot after some easy matchup and poor career coverage. Hawks are -7% on half back across the season.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Josh Ward o20.5

Has played his best games for the club as a centre bounce midfielder. Is a terrible user but a natural ball magnet and should hit this mark fairly easily. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.98

Units: 0.9

Josh Battle 20+

Gaping hole left behind with Scrimshaw and Amon out so there’s lots of touches to be had across the back half with the Tigers also being an epic +9% to half back and +19% uncontested. 

Bookmaker: TAB $2.25

Units: 0.75

Brisbane/Gold Coast

Noah Anderson u28.5

Historically struggles against the Lions (23,23,29,19 in his last 4) and also has poor numbers away when compared to Carrara and Darwin. Could get the Berry treatment.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Lachie Neale o27.5

The opposite to Anderson really. Playing at the Gabba and also loves playing against the Suns. This is a proper blockbuster Q-clash now and Lachie loves a blockbuster.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Hawthorn/Richmond

Changkuoth Jiath 15+/20+*

As we've said the Hawks are without a running few defenders and will need GS down there against the highly leaky Tigers forward line.

Bookmaker: TAB

Units:

0.8 15+ $1.65

0.3 20+ $4.20

Brisbane/Gold Coast

First Half u87.5 

Bookmaker: PointsBet $1.87

Units: 1