Round 9 (2025)

Fremantle/Collingwood

1st Half Highest Scoring

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $2.10

Units: 0.8

Will Hoskin-Elliot Goals

Should spend more time closer to goal with the loss of Mihocek and McStay. Proven goal kicker when playing deep.

Bookmaker: Bet365/Sportsbet 

Units: 

1U AGS $1.83 Bet365

0.2U 2+ $5.30 Sportsbet 

0.05 3+ $16.00 Sportsbet

Carlton/St Kilda

First Half u80.5

Bookmaker: TAB $1.95

Units: 0.95

*Edited due to misquote. 81.5 was gone.

Callum Wilkie u19.5 Disposals

The Blues have a history of taking Wilkie out of the equation with a lockdown forward. Wilkie cooked the Dockers last week with a bunch of intercepts but is due for a let down. Young/SoS the most likely candidates.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.78

Units: 1.1

Max Hall AGS

The Blues have been burnt by smalls all year. Collard has been playing as the deepest small and is sub so expect Hall to be deeper than normal. Has kicked 7 goals from 8 games this season.

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.87

Units: 1

Port Adelaide/Adelaide

Adelaide -8.5

The Showdown can often produce some erratic results that we have to go on form here. This game often turns into a brutal contest and Port are currently the worst contest team in the league. In the last three games, the power should have lost to the swans, crawled over the line against the kangaroos and got absolutely hammered against the Bulldogs. Crows on the other hand look fantastic, obliterating the blues and showing good form in a really tough run across the last month. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.90

Units: 1

Ollie Wines u25.5

We think the crows get on top in the midfield here and take this one pretty easily so looking for some underplays on some Port guys. Showdowns post Covid are -9% on uncontested footy. Wine has doubts over him with some health issues and has not covered since being subbed out with heart palpitations a few weeks ago. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.85

Units: 1.05

Ryan Burton u17.5

This guy is bad. Only thing we can say about him is that he has a nice kick but he is a defensive liability and I can definitely see Kenny dragging him to the sub at some point out of frustration. Has not covered his line in a showdown and as we covered last week when we went 2/2 against the Dogs, there are too many mouths to feed down back at the moment for everyone to eat. 

Bookmaker: Sportsbet $1.88

Units: 1

Josh Rachele Goals

Adding some value to our Crows handicap play here against a Port small defence that has been routinely horrible for 18 months. Has been in great form since returning and should start a few cent bounces again but fold through the midfield like the. Kozzie Pickett role.

Bookmaker: Pointsbet 

Units:

0.6U 2+ $2.80

0.2U 3+ $8

0.05U 4+ $21

Alex-Neale Bullen AGS

Bookmaker: Pointsbet $1.80

Units: 1.1

Gold Coast/Western Bulldogs

Matt Rowell 25+

Wow has had a tough run of it in the last few weeks. Got Rowbottom running around with him against the Swans and then Dunkley last week. The Dogs will back here themselves in tonight to win the ground ball as the best post clearance contest a possession team in the league. The greasy conditions suit Rowell and he has a great record up in Darwin. 

Bookmaker: TAB $2.10

Units: 0.9

Malcolm Rosas Goals

At hungus levels that would make Alex Sexton proud. Will take a a potshot from anywhere. Has a fantastic strike rate across his career on AGS. Played all his junior footy in Darwin and knows the greasy conditions better than anyone on the ground. Might be on his last chance at the Suns this year so has something to prove.

Bookmaker: Bet365 

Units:

1U AGS $1.65

0.3U 2+ $3.90

Essendon/Sydney

Zac Merrett u27.5

Prime candidate for the JJ tag. The Bombers look like they've planned for it by playing an extra mid which gives them an ability to take Merrett forward and not lose much. Zac has towelled up oppositions lately and it’s pretty clear he’s their main threat. The Swans tagged Zac last time out with great effect and won easily. If not JJ, Rowbottom is another strong option. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.87 

Units: 1

Isaac Heeney u22.5

Similar to the Swans, I think the bBombers try and shut down the Swans major weapon here by running Setterfield with him. The Swans may also attempt to drag Heeney forward here as Setterfield is not a strong defender and it gives them the ability to run James through bounce on Merrett. 

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.92

Units: 1

***AFL Sundy***

Richmond/West Coast

Ryan Maric 25+ Disposals

Great spot for Maric who has covered this against tougher opposition in the last few weeks. McGovern is out which gives him more opportunities from kick outs and the Tigers are a huge +16% to half backs with all Hawks going over last week.

Bookmaker: TAB* $2.25

Units: 0.8

Seth Campbell Goals

More often than not is the first player back when the Tigers slingshot on the turnover. Should be plenty of opportunities today against the shorthand at West Coast backline. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.95

Units: 1

1U 2+ $1.95

0.24 3+ $4.25

Geelong/GWS

Toby McMullin 15+ Disposals

The Giants are badly short on mids this week with Bedford not getting up alongside no Kelly and Coniglio. McMullin saw 54% CBAs last week and that should only rise this week against the Cats who are not great in the contest. 

Bookmaker: TAB* $1.65

Next Best: Pointsbet $1.63

Units: 1.3

Lachie Whitfield o29.5 Disposals

Tagged last week and then an unfavourable match up the week before against the Dogs. 30 is a key number for Whitfield, the Cats are very unlikely to attack him and have gone at a +10% to halfback so far this season. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

North Melbourne/Brisbane 

BL Second Half Away Points (o55.5)

Bookmaker: TAB $1.95

Units: 0.95

Levi Ashcroft u22.5

There are strong numbers on first year players performing poorly away. This is a good chance to take a let down spot for Levi after a big game last week and going under this mark for the majority of the season. 

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Nick Vlastuin u21.5 Disposals

The ball is going to spend a lot of time in West Coast's half as the Tigers sit deep. He won't get as many KO's as usual as the Eagles do thoroughly stink.

Bookmaker: Bet365 $1.87

Units: 1

Tim Taranto o26.5 Disposals

Had a few tags and tough match shops in recent weeks but this is a much easier assignment against the weakest midfield in the league whilst playing at home.

Bookmaker: Ladbrokes $1.82

Units: 1.05

RICH -3.5 Q4

Bookmaker: TAB $1.95

Units: 0.95

Callan Ward 20+

Increased midfield load.

Bookmaker: TAB* $1.90

Units: 1